Silver Bullet Backfires: Trump's Tariff Gamble Unleashes Mexican Mining Mayhem
Yes, we know there is a 30-day pause on Trump's 25% Tariff Threat. But in unrelated news, this is probably the best article I've ever written, and it is sure to be scorned by my beloved haters.
Again note the symbolism.
2025: Año de la Mujer Indígena
2025: Year of the Indigenous Woman
Four women
All Four are indigenous.
Why women?
Why indigenous?
Before you fire up the hate mail understand that a good reporter gets inside the thought process of the decision maker. So when we are discussing Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo (President of Mexico), Luisa Alcalde (President of Morena Party) or any cabinet member these are people that view history through a lens that Mexico has been systematically, structurally and deliberately oppressed.
First by Spain and now via neo-colonialism “perpetrated” intentionally by the “developed world” or “first world” exploiting Mexico
Here is how The President of Mexico (Pardo) and President of Morena Party (Alcalde) see things:
Why Women? Again, this is from their school of thought rooted in dependency theory and not necessarily my opinion.
Patriarchal structures, rooted in colonial legacies, have systematically marginalized women in Mexico. This oppression manifests through limited economic opportunities and exclusion from decision-making processes. A liberationist approach emphasizes the need for women's collective empowerment, challenging these oppressive systems to achieve true equality and social transformation.
Why Indigenous? Again, this is from their school of thought rooted in dependency theory and not necessarily my opinion.
Indigenous peoples in Mexico have faced centuries of exploitation stemming from the capitalist mode of production imposed by colonizers. This system has led to the expropriation of their lands, resources, and labor, creating a cycle of poverty and marginalization. The ongoing struggle against this oppression is fundamentally a class conflict, rooted in the unequal distribution of power and wealth.
So from Pardo’s and Morena party’s perspective the double curse would be living as an indigenous woman because you would check two boxes in the exploitation column.
Some Math
Mexico's new welfare program, "Avances de los Programas y Pensiones del Bienestar," includes several initiatives aimed at supporting vulnerable groups such as adults over 65, people with disabilities, and women aged 60-64. Here are the key details:
Program Details
Pension for Adults Over 65 Years of Age (Pensión para el Bienestar de las Personas Adultas Mayores):
This program provides bimonthly payments of 6,200 pesos to individuals aged 65 or older who are Mexican citizens or residents.
It currently benefits 12.26 million seniors, with a bimonthly investment of 76 billion pesos.
Pension for People with Disabilities:
Offers financial support to individuals with disabilities.
Currently supports 1.37 million people, with a bimonthly investment of 4.38 billion pesos.
Women’s Welfare Pension (Pensión Mujeres Bienestar):
Targets women aged 60-64, particularly those in indigenous or Afro-Mexican communities.
Provides bimonthly payments of 3,000 pesos.
Initially benefited 964,556 women, with a total investment of 2.47 billion pesos.
Other Programs:
Includes support for working mothers and agricultural workers (e.g., Sembrando Vida), collectively benefiting millions more.
Eligibility and Registration
Registration is organized by surname and requires documents such as official ID, CURP, birth certificate, proof of residence, and contact details.
Applicants must register at designated Bienestar Modules across the country.
Total Beneficiaries
As of February 2025, approximately 15.21 million people benefit from these programs.
Budget Allocation
The total budget for these welfare programs in 2025 is projected to be approximately 85.96 billion pesos for the first two months alone.
The overall government subsidy budget for welfare programs in 2025 is set at a historic high of 1.1 trillion pesos, reflecting a significant increase in funding compared to previous years
Conversion: Exchange Rate.
Pesos to Dollars
Based on the current exchange rate of 1 MXN = 0.04925 USD as of February 14, 2025, here are the key details of Mexico's welfare program "Avances de los Programas y Pensiones del Bienestar" converted to US dollars:
Program Details
Pension for Adults Over 65 Years of Age:
Bimonthly payments of $305.35 to eligible individuals aged 65 or older.
Currently benefits 12.26 million seniors.
Bimonthly investment of approximately $3.74 billion.
Pension for People with Disabilities:
Provides financial support of about $215.72 bimonthly to individuals with disabilities.
Currently supports 1.37 million people.
Bimonthly investment of approximately $215.73 million.
Women's Welfare Pension:
Targets women aged 60-64.
Provides bimonthly payments of $147.75.
Initially benefited 964,556 women.
Total investment of approximately $121.65 million.
Budget Allocation
The total budget for these welfare programs in 2025 for the first two months is projected to be approximately $4.23 billion.
The overall government subsidy budget for welfare programs in 2025 is set at a historic high of about $54.18 billion.
These are Massive numbers but we are not finished.
Like I’ve been reporting for over 11 months, The Mexican government is vastly expanding her social welfare programs, aimed at improving the quality of life for vulnerable populations across the country.
In the areas of Food, Housing, Pensions, Healthcare, Elderly, Women, Indigenous, Infrastructure, Education, Pre-Natal Care, Childcare, K-12 education, Vocational Education, etc.
There’s more:
The Morena party has also rolled out other popular spending programs such as
free fertilizer
Improved health care
and a robust plan to build affordable housing
One Million Homes
What is going to subsidize this monstrous budget?
Will give you a clue.
It’s a 6 letter word
The word starts with the letter S
it ends with the letter R
there are two vowels
Like on Wheel of Fortune: “I’m going to buy a vowel… is there an I?”
“I’m going to buy another vowel … is there an E?
and is #47 on the periodic table
Putting our Thinking Caps on
Remembering our Reporting
Morena party is the 4th transformation (previously three were all pivotal or historical events of Mexico radicalizing or removing forces that were deemed “unpopular” or coercive ( predatory or exploitive in nature)
Their messaging (rallying cries that resonate with their base are) “Mexico’s resources belong to the people of Mexico not foreign interests” “Mexico must secure its Energy Future”
Claudia Pardo has a Ph.D. in Energy Engineering
Luisa Alcalde educated from University of California Berkeley (pro labor attorney)
She is also aggressively RAISING the minimum wage which puts upward pressure on all wages
Their ideology stems from Marxism which means they will always refer to the past as a historical struggle whereby marginalized groups have been exploited by privileged groups
Thus the Morena party aims to “return land to those whose land have been taken” and other social and economic policies that lead to shared wealth, shared prosperity and shared prestige because prior regimes upheld a hierarchical structure with differential access to these rewards valued by society
Thus a massive expansion of Socialized Food, Healthcare, Housing, Transportation, pensions
This is very close to what is called a Universal Basic Income
Recall Morena refers to their party members as “comrades”
Recall that Morena party refers to their movement as a “militancy” or “militant movement”
Recall that they cite at each of their rally’s that the poor come first
harkening to “The first shall be last, and the last shall be first”
Ear to Ground, What I was told by a Senior Staffer (Mining operation our of Mexico)
Just two days ago, I urgently shared with my newsletter readers the news that Mexican Silver mining CEOs and IR staff had informed me over the phone about a sudden (announcement) increasing their taxes for their Silver Mining Operations in Mexico.
What's more, the Morena party is taking a bold stance, directly approaching Canadian and US-owned silver mines with a clear message: WE NEED MORE MONEY TO FUND OUR NEW BUDGET
And remember, your role in this is crucial. I have much more to share with you in the future, so keep reading and stay informed.
Economic Wars , cost just as much or more as Kinetic Wars
Morena Party Thought: OK Mr Trump. Now watch our counter-move
In physics, life, politics. Every action is met with an equal or more severe reaction right?
Both tariffs and increased taxes on foreign mining companies serve to generate revenue from external sources for the host country.
These policies aim to capitalize on foreign economic activities, whether through imports or resource extraction. They share the philosophy of leveraging international commerce to bolster domestic finances, potentially protecting local industries while simultaneously filling government coffers
Trump's proposed 25% tariff on Mexican imports will just create retaliatory measures from Mexico, particularly in the mining sector. While Trump aims to generate revenue and protect U.S. industries, Mexico is responding or will respond with a powerful countermove by imposing a 25% tax on silver mining and extractive industries operated by North American companies within its borders.
Time for the metaphors, sorry folks it’s how I learn too.
In the grand arena of global politics, Trump's tariff threat against Mexico is like a boxer throwing a wild haymaker. While he aims to land a knockout blow, he fails to see the opponent's counter-punch coming. Every action, whether in the ring of international trade or the field of diplomacy, invites an equal and opposite reaction. Just as Newton's laws govern physics, the laws of geopolitics ensure that for every tariff imposed, there's a retaliatory measure waiting in the wings. In this high-stakes game, unintended consequences often become the true victors
Concluding thought
The all in sustaining cost for silver mining in Mexico ranks the highest among major mining jurisdictions (globally)
This is very bad for people investing in Silver Mining Equities operating in Mexico because shareholders only win if mining is profitable. The production cost (AISC) for mining Silver in Mexico is way too close to the spot price. Taxes on top of this is like the death blow.
This is why we recommend miners in jurisdictions like US, Canada, Morocco, Peru and Bolivia or taking a case by case look in Chile and Argentina as well.
However, this is all good news for silver stackers (accumulate more) because more taxes on mining in the World’s #1 silver producing country means the price of silver goes up (physical)
Now I am just going to sit back and wait for my Pulitzer. I just don’t know what else I can do to convince everyone to think critically not emotionally.
Parting Shot
SELL YOUR SILVER MINING STOCKS IF THEY HAVE OPERATIONS IN MEXICO
Tomorrow we will look into the meaning of this
our opinions are not our sponsors
editorial dept is separate from promotions
not financial advice