With By‑Product Supply Vanishing, Deficits Exploding and China Hoarding, Michael Oliver’s $500‑Per‑Ounce Supernova Call No Longer Looks Crazy—It Looks Inevitable
China’s sulfuric acid export ban threatens the acid‑leach copper, lead & zinc mines that supply roughly 70% of the world’s by‑product silver, putting an already deficit‑ridden market on a knifes edge.
China’s sulfuric acid export restrictions, starting in May 2026, matter for Silver because they threaten the base-metal mines that supply most of the world’s silver.
Around 70% of global silver output is produced as a by-product of lead, zinc, copper and gold mining rather than from primary silver mines, so disruptions in those sectors can quickly tighten silver supply.
S&P-type industry reporting indicates that reduced sulfuric acid availability raises costs and can force cutbacks at acid-intensive copper and zinc operations, particularly in regions dependent on imported reagents. This indirectly jeopardizes by-product silver volumes even if silver prices are rising.
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Against this backdrop, primary silver producers stand out. Aya Gold & Silver (TSX: AYA, OTC: AYASF), Andean Precious Metals (TSX: APM, OTC: ANPMF) and Kuya Silver (CSE: KUYA, OTC: KUYAF) operate and advance projects where silver is the main revenue driver, not a secondary credit to base metals. Their mine plans are therefore less directly constrained by sulfuric-acid–dependent copper or zinc output decisions.
In a world where China’s sulfuric acid export ban squeezes base-metal mining, these primary silver companies represent best-practice exposure: they provide more “pure” linkage to silver prices while being structurally insulated from reagent-driven curtailments in by-product silver supply
Now add this to the mix
China’s record silver imports signal a structural shift in the metal’s role and who controls it. China brought in roughly 836 tons (about 27 million ounces) of silver in March 2026 alone—almost triple its recent monthly average—spending close to $1 billion in a single month.
This buying is driven by both booming solar demand and rising retail appetite for bullion, while inventories on Chinese exchanges are rebuilding from very low levels. At the same time, silver is flowing out of Western ETFs and futures warehouses and into Asia, echoing earlier episodes of Eastward migration in gold. Overlay this with U.S. deficits heading toward $2 trillion, interest costs rivaling defense spending, and a century-long erosion of the dollar’s purchasing power, and silver’s appeal as monetary insurance becomes obvious.
Supply-side stresses reinforce the case: mine output is under pressure, wars have tightened sulfur and sulfuric acid markets, and China is now curbing sulfuric acid exports, threatening by‑product silver from copper operations. With traditional 60/40 portfolios struggling while commodity‑inclusive mixes hold up better, China’s aggressive accumulation looks less like speculation and more like a blueprint for preserving purchasing power in a leveraged, inflation‑prone, conflict‑ridden world.
Source
China’s move to restrict sulfuric acid exports from May 2026 tightens supplies of a critical reagent used to leach copper, nickel, uranium and other metals from ore in major mining regions.
War‑driven disruptions to sulfur supplies had already driven sulfuric acid prices sharply higher; China’s curbs layer on a second shock that threatens both agricultural production and metals output.
Copper‑heavy jurisdictions like Chile and Indonesia, which rely on imported acid for solvent extraction–electrowinning operations, face the greatest risk of cost spikes, margin compression and eventual production cuts.
Because roughly two‑thirds to three‑quarters of global silver comes as a by‑product from copper, lead and zinc mines, any curtailment of base‑metal output directly tightens by‑product silver supply.
Rising sulfuric acid prices and potential shortages therefore do not just pressure copper and nickel; they also increase the odds of a structural squeeze in physical silver, as mine plans are scaled back or delayed.
Uranium and other acid‑leach producers are similarly exposed, with higher reagent costs likely to defer marginal projects and reduce the pace of new supply growth in critical energy metals.
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