The Silver Crisis: Simple Calculations Reveal Supplies Are Nearing Obliteration
Silver Shortage Alert: Are We Approaching a World Without This Precious Metal
Samsung's silver solid-state battery technology represents a quantum leap in electric vehicle performance. Compared to traditional lithium-ion batteries, these new batteries promise to double the driving range, last twice as long, charge in just 10 minutes instead of 25, and offer double the overall battery life. Such staggering improvements in performance often lead to rapid technological shifts, as we've seen with email replacing fax machines or mobile phones superseding pagers.
When faced with such significant advancements, consumers tend to vote with their wallets, driving swift market changes. The public's demand for efficiency and performance is particularly strong for major improvements like doubling range, extending battery life, and reducing charging times. These factors are crucial in the automotive sector, where convenience and reliability are paramount.
As history has shown, when a new technology offers substantial benefits over its predecessor, adoption can be remarkably quick. The consumer market acts as a powerful voting bloc, rapidly embracing innovations that offer tangible improvements to daily life. In the case of electric vehicles, the potential for longer trips, less frequent charging, and extended vehicle lifespans could trigger a massive shift in consumer preferences, potentially accelerating the transition from traditional lithium-ion batteries to this new silver solid-state technology.
The electric vehicle market is poised for significant growth between now and 2030, with projections suggesting around 150 million electric cars will be sold worldwide during this period. In addition to passenger vehicles, the commercial sector is also expected to see substantial electrification.
Electric truck sales are gaining momentum, with global sales reaching around 54,000 units in 2023, surpassing electric bus sales for the first time. China currently dominates the market, accounting for 70% of global electric truck sales in 2023. However, both Europe and the United States are seeing rapid growth, with sales tripling in these regions in 2023. Forecasts suggest that battery electric trucks could reach 43% of global truck registrations by 2030, translating to an estimated 15-20 million cumulative sales by that year.
The electric bus market is also expanding, with almost 50,000 units sold globally in 2023, representing 3% of total bus sales. The global stock of electric buses reached approximately 635,000 in 2023. Many countries are targeting 100% zero-emission bus sales by 2035, indicating strong growth potential in this sector. By 2030, cumulative electric bus sales could reach 2-3 million units.
Electric vans are seeing increased uptake as well, with a 21.2% increase in registrations reported in some markets. The van market, including electric vans, is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3.9% from 2024 to 2030. By the end of the decade, electric vans could make up a significant portion of the light commercial vehicle market, potentially reaching 10-15 million cumulative sales.
In total, these projections suggest an additional 27-38 million electric commercial vehicles could be sold on top of the 150 million electric cars by 2030. This rapid electrification across various vehicle segments is driven by factors such as declining battery costs, expanding model ranges, improving charging infrastructure, and supportive government policies. While these estimates are subject to change based on market conditions and technological advancements, they underscore the significant transformation underway in the global transportation sector.
Simple Math Simply Means NO SILVER FOR YOU
These are just calculations for vehicles (not counting solar, military, aerospace, AI, robotics, all other industrial uses)
World Silver Mining Production (annual): 800,000,000 troy oz
Years of Silver mining it would take to reach Silver demand just for Electric Vehicles:
8,841,455,305 / 800,000,000 = 11.05 years
Based on the current annual world silver mining production of 800 million troy ounces, it would take approximately 11.05 years to produce the total amount of silver required for just vehicles 8,841,455,305 troy ounces.
It's important to note that this calculation assumes:
Constant annual production of 800 million ounces (not really a safe assumption given there have been no new silver discoveries, these numbers are headed lower unless we invest in our top 5 mining picks listed below)
Is all silver mined used exclusively for EV cars, buses, trucks, vans
OF COURSE NOT
Silver is used industrially for Military, Aerospace, Solar Power, AI, 5G, Robotics, Electric Trains, and 10,000 other uses
What about jewelry?
What about Silver coins?
What about Silver bars?
What about Silver coatings and Silver plating?
What about Silver used in healthcare settings and water filtration?
What about Silver used in Westinghouse’s Rod Cluster Assemblies?
What about Silver as a catalyst for hydrogen fuel cell energy?
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Silver Academy endorses only 5 Silver miners that are pure silver mines (not silver as by product mines)
We have selected our picks based on the strength of:
Their balance sheets
Their Ore grades
Their Metallurgy
Their Management talent
and most importantly their volume of ounces in the ground
Silver Academy’s top 5 picks
Again, Pure Silver Miners (Not Silver as by product miners)
Andean Precious Metals: TSXV: APM, OTCQX: ANPMF
The company operates the largest commercial silver oxide processing plant in Bolivia's Cerro Rico region - the San Bartolomé facility. This strategic asset has produced over 65 million ounces of silver equivalents since 2009, demonstrating Andean's significant production capabilities.
Their robust balance sheet provides the company with financial flexibility and stability in a volatile industry.
The company follows a two-pronged growth strategy, focusing on organic growth in Bolivia and expansion through mergers and acquisitions in the wider Americas. This approach positions Andean for sustainable long-term growth and diversification.
Andean has successfully extended the life of the San Bartolomé mine from eight months to potentially 10 years or more, showcasing the company's operational expertise and ability to maximize asset value.
The company is committed to sustainable mining practices and community engagement, contributing approximately $75 million annually to the local economy through wages, royalties, and taxes. This dedication to social responsibility strengthens Andean's social license to operate.
By acquiring Golden Queen Mining Company (USA), Andean Precious Metals has taken a significant step towards achieving its vision of becoming a multi-jurisdictional mid-tier producer in the Americas, while positioning itself for sustainable long-term growth
Aya Gold & Silver: TSX: AYA, OTCQX: AYASF
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. is a leading silver producer, uniquely positioned as the only pure silver mining company listed on the TSX, with a strong operational base in Morocco. The company has recently reported record revenues of $13.7 million in Q2 2024, reflecting a remarkable 42% increase from the previous year, showcasing its robust growth trajectory and commitment to maximizing shareholder value. With ongoing expansions at the high-grade Zgounder Silver Mine, Aya is set to increase its processing capacity to 2,700 tonnes per day in 2024, further solidifying its market presence. Additionally, Aya's strategic exploration efforts have led to significant mineral resource estimates, including a recent discovery at the Boumadine project, which highlights the company's potential for future growth and profitability. Committed to sustainability, Aya Gold & Silver integrates responsible mining practices into its operations, ensuring long-term value creation for its stakeholders
Dolly Varden Silver: TSXV: DV, OTCQX: DOLLF
Dolly Varden Silver Corporation is a leading mineral exploration company making significant strides in the heart of British Columbia's Golden Triangle, focusing on its 100% held Kitsault Valley Project. This project boasts an impressive resource estimate of 64 million ounces of silver and 1 million ounces of gold, positioning Dolly Varden as a key player in the precious metals sector. The company is committed to sustainable mining practices while leveraging its rich history, including the past-producing Dolly Varden and Torbrit silver mines, to unlock further potential in the region. With a strong management team and recent discoveries enhancing its growth prospects, Dolly Varden Silver is poised for a bright future in the booming silver market. Investors can look forward to exciting developments as Dolly Varden continues to advance its projects and expand its resource base.
Outcrop Silver: TSXV: OCG , OTCQX: OCGSF
Outcrop Silver & Gold is focused on its high-grade Santa Ana silver project in Colombia. Recent drilling has discovered high-grade shoots within multiple veins, including up to 6.9 kg/t silver equivalent over 1 m width. This has led to a maiden resource estimate of 24.1 million indicated and 13.5 million inferred ounces of silver equivalent. The resources grade very high, with indicated at 614 g/t and inferred at 435 g/t silver equivalent. Metallurgical testing demonstrates excellent recoveries of 93% for silver and 97% for gold. Santa Ana contains over 48 km of mapped veins, providing substantial upside as only 17% have been drilled so far. Outcrop plans ongoing drilling to expand resources and make new discoveries across the large vein system.
Kuya Silver: CSE: KUYA, OTCQB: KUYAF
Kuya Silver is at the forefront of silver mining with its dual-track strategy, actively mining the high potential Bethania Silver Mine in Peru and developing the historic Silver Kings Project in Ontario. With robust mining and exploration programs underway, Kuya is poised to unlock significant value from its assets. Kuya Silver's experienced management team, led by industry veterans, is dedicated to maximizing shareholder value through strategic growth and operational excellence. As the demand for silver continues to rise, Kuya Silver stands ready to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the market.
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The views expressed on TheSilverIndustry.substack.com are not necessarily those of the Silver Academy.