Silver Is Still Dirt Cheap—And the Coming Move Could Be Violent
Despite a powerful run, key monetary and market ratios show silver remains deeply undervalued—setting the stage for a potential surge. First stop $120 by years end?
For those losing patience in the precious metals trade, it is worth stepping back and recognizing where we are in the broader cycle. Bull markets do not move in straight lines; they advance in violent, nonlinear legs separated by periods of consolidation that test conviction. What we are seeing now is not failure—it is digestion before the next expansion phase.
Several credible analysts are converging on dramatically higher endgame targets, even if their timelines and methodologies differ. Don Durrett has outlined a pathway toward roughly $6,500 gold and $150 silver, while Jesse Colombo—using longer-term macro and monetary expansion models—arrives at projections closer to $15,000 gold and $500 silver.
The disparity is not contradiction; it reflects differing assumptions about the scale of monetary debasement and the duration of the cycle. Both frameworks, however, point in the same direction: materially higher prices from current levels.
From a structural standpoint, the bull market is unfolding in stages. Leg one carried gold from $2,000 toward $5,600 and silver from $35 to $120. Leg two, currently developing, targets a more conservative $4,000 to $6,500 range for gold and $50 to $150 for silver before any terminal blow-off phase. The current environment is simply the pause between those advances.
More importantly, valuation metrics confirm that silver remains deeply undervalued. When measured against the U.S. M2 money supply—a far more honest proxy for monetary inflation than CPI—the silver ratio sits near 77, compared to peaks of 1,008 in 1980 and 171 in 2011. If inflation is, as Milton Friedman stated, fundamentally a monetary phenomenon, then silver has not remotely caught up to the expansion of the money supply.
The same conclusion emerges when comparing silver to the S&P 500. The silver-to-equity ratio currently hovers around 37, versus 2,007 in 1980 and 181 in 2011. This reflects not just suppressed metals prices, but an equity market that remains historically overvalued by nearly every credible metric, including the Buffett Indicator and Shiller P/E.
This imbalance matters because capital historically rotates between financial assets and hard assets in long-duration cycles. When the equity bubble eventually unwinds, the scale of capital seeking refuge will be enormous. In that environment, precious metals are positioned not as a hedge, but as the primary destination.
Against that backdrop, projections of $300 to $500 silver and $15,000 gold are not extreme—they are consistent with prior cycle behavior adjusted for today’s vastly larger debt burden and monetary base. If anything, they may prove conservative.
The key takeaway is simple: the bull has not ended. It is coiling. The next leg is coming, and until it arrives, the volatility should be understood for what it is—noise within a much larger structural move.
Stay patient, study the chart below
end of segment
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ht to Jesse Colombo for the charts