MEXICO: Logic and Facts Triumph Over Wishes and Fantasies. The Fourth Transformation is Code for Nationalizing Silver
Silver is the #1 conductor of Energy. Nationalization support Mexico's energy independence goals.
The Fourth Transformation, as envisioned by López Obrador and now continued by his successors, (Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and Secretary of Environment María Luisa Albores González,) draws on Mexico's history of revolutionary change.
The three previous transformations—the Mexican War of Independence (1810–1821), the Reform War (1858–1861), and the Mexican Revolution (1910–1917)—each marked significant shifts in Mexico's social and political landscape
The rhetoric of the "Fourth Transformation" and concepts like "Guardians of the Territory" and slogans like “We Must SECURE OUR ENERGY FUTURE” are coded language (dog whistles) for Silver nationalization or expropriation of foreign-owned silver mining operations in Mexico. (But most likely they will develop a hybrid model of 51% Mexico owned to 49% foreign owned, this is why they ran their test case simulation using Lithium, see below)
The MORENA party, led by AMLO and continued by figures like Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo and María Luisa Albores González, has already demonstrated a willingness to nationalize strategic resources with the lithium industry.
Their emphasis on resource sovereignty, environmental protection, and social justice aligns closely with the idea of reclaiming control over Mexico's mineral wealth.
Given Mexico's rich silver deposits and the historical significance of silver mining to the country, it's logical that silver is the next target for this kind of economic nationalism.
Remember that the Fourth transformation, as outlined in the opening paragraph, is significantly influenced by MORENA's dominance. With no other force or regime in Mexico to challenge, the focus of the 4th revolution, by the process of elimination, is unmistakably silver. If MORENA was running against some other Political party, e.g, the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI),or the National Action Party (PAN), then the Fourth Transformation would mean replacing PRI or PAN with MORENA. But MORENA is a continuation (Re-election) thus we have to ask ourselves who are they trying to throw out?
The "Fourth Transformation" narrative, positioning itself as a continuation of Mexico's historical revolutionary movements, provides a powerful ideological framework for such actions.
The lithium nationalization model, which allows for public-private partnerships with majority state control, serves as a blueprint for a similar approach to the silver industry.
This would allow the government to assert greater control over the resource while still potentially benefiting from foreign expertise and investment.
In this context, when MORENA leaders speak of "defending the territory" or being "guardians of the territory," it's reasonable to interpret this as a signal of intent to reduce foreign control over Mexico's natural resources, with silver being a prime candidate given its economic importance and the current level of foreign ownership in the sector.
The trajectory of MORENA's policies and rhetoric strongly suggests that increased state control or outright nationalization of the silver industry is the philosophical foundation, future goal, framed as part of the broader "Fourth Transformation" of Mexico's economy and society.
The Fourth Transformation by Law of Logic implies Silver will be Nationalized
The nationalization of silver in Mexico, following the model established for lithium, is a plausible scenario given the current political climate and the ideological leanings of the ruling party. Several factors support this thesis:
Political Continuity
Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, endorsed by President López Obrador, will continue the policies of the "Fourth Transformation." This political movement emphasizes national sovereignty over natural resources and a strong state role in key industries. We’ve reported extensively on what AMLO meant when saying “MEXICO MUST SECURE IT’S ENERGY FUTURE”
Environmental and Social Justice Focus
María Luisa Albores González, with her background in social development and peasant roots, represents a commitment to environmental and social justice. As Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources, she has promoted concepts like "Guardians of the Territory," which align with the government's focus on community-based resource management.
Lithium Nationalization as a Precedent
The creation of LitioMx as a state-owned company for lithium exploration, extraction, and refining sets a clear precedent for how the government views strategic mineral resources. This model could easily be applied to silver, given its historical and economic importance to Mexico.
Resource Sovereignty
The "Fourth Transformation" ideology emphasizes reclaiming national control over natural resources. Silver, being a historically significant mineral for Mexico, fits well within this narrative of resource sovereignty and economic nationalism.
Community-Based Approach
The government's focus on involving local communities in resource management, as seen in the "Guardians of the Territory" initiative, could be extended to silver mining regions. This approach aligns with the broader goals of social justice and equitable distribution of resource wealth.
With silver prices subject to global market fluctuations, nationalizing the industry could be presented as a way to ensure that the benefits of this resource primarily serve the Mexican people and economy.
Historical Precedent
Mexico has a history of nationalizing key industries, most notably oil in 1938. The current political climate echoes some of the sentiments that led to previous nationalizations.
While this scenario remains speculative, the parallels between the lithium nationalization and a similar approach to silver are striking.
The government's actions with lithium serve as a potential blueprint for how they will likely approach Silver.
As Mexico continues to assert control over its natural resources, we believe the silver industry is next in line for significant restructuring under state control.
Not that kind of Vulcan
The recent actions taken against Vulcan Materials provide strong evidence supporting the thesis that Mexico's government is likely to extend its resource nationalization efforts to the silver industry. Here are key points:
In September 2024, outgoing President López Obrador declared Vulcan's limestone quarry and port near Playa del Carmen a protected natural area, prohibiting material extraction. This move came just days before the end of his term, demonstrating a commitment to resource control even in his final moments in office.
The government had previously seized Vulcan's facility in March 2023, escalating the dispute over the company's operations
This shows a willingness to take direct action against foreign-owned resource extraction companies.
López Obrador justified these actions by claiming environmental concerns, stating, "There is no way we are going to allow them to destroy our territory"
This rhetoric aligns closely with the "Guardians of the Territory" concept promoted by figures like María Luisa Albores González.
The government's actions against Vulcan violate commitments under the USMCA trade agreement indicating that Mexico is prepared to face international legal challenges to assert control over its resources.
U.S. Senators have described the seizure as a "flagrant expropriation of a lawfully permitted, U.S.-owned operation" highlighting the severity of Mexico's actions against foreign-owned resource companies.
These actions against Vulcan Materials, a U.S. company operating in Mexico's limestone industry, demonstrate that the Mexican government is willing to take bold steps to assert control over its natural resources, even at the cost of international tensions. This pattern of behavior, combined with the nationalization of lithium and the rhetoric of the "Fourth Transformation," strongly suggests that silver – a resource of immense historical and economic importance to Mexico – could indeed be the next target for similar measures.
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The Lithium Blueprint, Silver is Next.
The nationalized lithium company in Mexico is called LitioMx, formally known as Litio para México (Lithium for Mexico)
LitioMx was created by decree in August 2022 by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. It is a state-owned company responsible for managing the exploration, mining exploitation, and refining of lithium throughout Mexico.
LitioMx is also tasked with controlling the economic value chains related to lithium.
LitioMx falls under the control of the Secretariat of Energy (Sener), not the country's Geological Survey (SGM).
The company was set to begin operations within 180 days of the decree's publication, which was around February 24, 2023.
Nationalization Process
In April 2022, López Obrador introduced a law to nationalize lithium in Mexico.
On February 18, 2023, he signed a decree to accelerate the nationalization process.
The president established 234,855 hectares in Sonora as a mining reserve zone under the Energy Ministry's control.
LitioMx is designed to function through partnerships with public and private-sector companies.
In these partnerships, LitioMx is expected to retain at least 51% ownership in joint ventures.
This nationalization of lithium in Mexico follows a similar pattern to the nationalization of oil through Pemex, but with its own distinct entity focused specifically on lithium resources and development.
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Our analysis is in the tradition of Jeremy Bentham’s Logical Methods
Some of our critics hold on to fantasies and wishes
Facts over anecdotal opinions.
In the history of legal and philosophical thought, one of the most compelling examples of using logic and facts to overcome anecdotal or fantastical arguments comes from the work of Jeremy Bentham (1748-1832), the English philosopher and jurist.
Bentham's Utilitarian Approach
Bentham is best known for developing the theory of utilitarianism, which he applied rigorously to legal and social reform. His approach exemplifies how to use systematic logic to address complex societal issues, even in the face of emotional or idealistic counterarguments.
The Felicific Calculus
At the core of Bentham's methodology was the "felicific calculus" (also known as the hedonistic calculus), a systematic attempt to quantify pleasure and pain in decision-making.
This approach aimed to provide an objective framework for evaluating laws and policies, moving beyond subjective opinions or wishful thinking.
Application to Legal Reform
Bentham applied this logical framework to critique existing laws and propose reforms. He argued that laws should be judged based on their consequences for human happiness, not on tradition, intuition, or abstract principles.
Methodology for Public Discourse
Bentham's approach to conveying his ideas to the general public involved several key elements. He advocated for plain language in law and philosophy, rejecting obscure jargon. Bentham created detailed taxonomies of human motivations and legal concepts to clarify complex ideas. He emphasized the importance of observable facts (empirical focus) and measurable outcomes over abstract theories. Bentham ruthlessly analyzed existing institutions and ideas, exposing logical inconsistencies and harmful consequences. (rational critique)
Example: Critique of Natural Rights
One of Bentham's most famous applications of this logical approach was his critique of the concept of natural rights. He famously dismissed the idea of natural rights as "nonsense upon stilts," arguing that rights only exist within a legal framework and should be justified based on their utility to society.
Bentham contended that appeals to abstract, unprovable "natural rights" could be used to justify any position, no matter how harmful. Instead, he proposed evaluating rights and laws based on their demonstrable effects on human welfare.
Impact and Legacy
Bentham's logical, fact-based approach had a profound impact on legal and political thought. His ideas influenced the development of modern legal systems, particularly in areas like criminal justice reform and codification of laws
While not everyone agreed with Bentham's conclusions, his methodology demonstrated how rigorous logic and empirical analysis could be used to address complex social issues, moving beyond anecdotes, fantasies, or appeals to tradition.
By providing a systematic framework for evaluating laws and policies, Bentham showed how philosophical reasoning could be applied to practical problems, influencing public debate and policy-making in ways that continue to resonate today.
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I think that Mexico would be better of demanding that all silver must be treated and sold to the state, at the manipulated Con ex price, and then stack it as national reserves.
The silver mining Companies are not making excessive profits, foreign owned or lokal.
Even First Majestic has had to make their own mint in Nevada to capture more value from their silver.
I find it strange that miners dont refine it them selves in a joint venture with other miners and then Auktion it of in pure bar form thus breaking the fraudulent paper shorts by banks that have no stake in the hard work.