Gold Made the 23rd Record Close of 2025 the Same Day UBS says $3,500 Gold

Trade War, Poor US Treasury Auctions & Ongoing De-Dollarization Fuel Gold and Silver Surge

UBS Report: Taking the Gloves off-raising our Gold Forecast.

UBS has issued a bold new forecast for gold prices, raising its year-end target to $3,500 per ounce, up from its previous estimate of $3,200. This announcement comes as gold continues its remarkable rally, closing at a record high of $3,250 per ounce—its 23rd record close this year. The bank’s revised outlook reflects growing confidence in the precious metal’s upward trajectory amid a confluence of global economic and geopolitical factors.

In its release titled "Taking the Gloves Off," UBS pointed to several key drivers behind its bullish stance. Chief among them are escalating trade tensions and the ongoing trend of dedollarization, as countries increasingly diversify their reserves away from the U.S. dollar. UBS also highlighted the poor performance of U.S. Treasury auctions, which has diminished investor appetite for traditional safe-haven assets and further boosted gold’s appeal.

Central bank demand is another critical factor underpinning the revised forecast. UBS now expects central banks to purchase 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025, up from its earlier estimate of 950 tons. This unprecedented level of accumulation is reshaping the dynamics of the gold market. Additionally, speculative demand through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is on the rise, with inflows projected to reach 450 tons this year compared to an earlier forecast of 300 tons. Retail interest in Asia has also surged, driven in part by policy changes such as China’s approval for insurance companies to invest in gold.

The bank noted that gold has outperformed equities and Treasuries so far this year, as recession fears and geopolitical risks push investors toward safe-haven assets. Despite slight increases in mine output, physical supply remains tight, with scrap sales failing to keep pace with rising demand.

While UBS’s forecast is slightly more conservative than Goldman Sachs's recent projection of $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 by mid-2026, both institutions share a decidedly optimistic outlook for gold. UBS emphasized that the current macroeconomic environment makes gold allocations more compelling than ever, reinforcing its role as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty.

This latest announcement underscores the growing consensus among major financial institutions that gold will remain a critical asset in navigating today’s volatile markets. With central banks stockpiling at record levels and investor interest surging globally, UBS’s revised target reflects not just confidence in gold’s performance but also broader shifts in global financial strategies.