Gold at $3,436 is still CHEAP. We call for a 7X to 10X move from Today.
Gold and Silver Miners in Jurisdictions Outside of Mexico will Pop 15X to 25X based on the leverage scenario
The global financial system stands at a critical juncture.
Nations are 100% divesting from the U.S. dollar’s hegemony, a seismic recalibration is underway — one that threatens to unravel the fiat currency experiment that has dominated since Nixon severed the dollar’s last ties to gold in 1971.
The recent $81 billion Treasury dump by China, Japan, and the U.K. in December 2024 isn’t merely a portfolio adjustment.
It’s a flashing red signal of eroding confidence in dollar-denominated debt, amplified by America’s $2 trillion deficit and the Federal Reserve’s relentless quantitative tightening.
But what’s really concerning for US Treasuries and US Economy is that since December 2024 to April 21 (time of this report) the acceleration of dedollarization has intensified.
This is just the opening act.
On July 1, 2025, Basel III regulations will formally reclassify physical gold as a Tier 1 asset — placing it on equal footing with cash in global banking systems.
This tectonic shift, quietly finalized by the Basel Committee in 2019, effectively neuters the paper gold market that has artificially suppressed prices for decades.
Under the new law, banks must back unallocated gold positions with 85% stable funding, rendering speculative paper contracts economically untenable. The result? A $20 trillion shadow market in gold derivatives now faces extinction — and physical bullion is poised to reclaim its throne.
The numbers tell a story of desperation.
Central banks have gobbled up over 1,000 tons of gold annually since 2022, with China’s reserves exploding from 3.5% to 7.1% of its foreign holdings. India’s RBI now sits on $97 billion in bullion, while Poland and Kazakhstan vacuum up metal at record pace.
Even the Federal Reserve has quietly repatriated gold from London vaults, suggesting Wall Street knows what’s coming. This isn’t diversification — it’s an arms race against currency debasement.
Gold’s price action confirms the paradigm shift.
After breaching $3,300/oz in April 2025 — a 45% surge since 2020 that dwarfs the S&P 500’s gains — the metal is entering what analysts call “vertical price discovery”.
Goldman Sachs now projects $3,700 by fall of 2025, while UBS eyes $4,000 as Basel III’s physical squeeze collides with Trump’s trade wars and $36 trillion in U.S. debt.
For context, the 1970s bull run saw gold rocket 2,000% as fiat currencies imploded. Today’s macroeconomic powder keg makes that era look tame.
The implications are revolutionary.
By demoting unbacked paper gold to Tier 3 status while elevating physical metal to money, Basel III effectively reboots the monetary system.
Banks can now leverage bullion at 100% value without capital buffers — a green light for balance sheet expansion using history’s oldest currency.
Meanwhile, the dollar’s purchasing power has evaporated 98% since 1969, with Treasury holders finally waking to the music.
This isn’t speculation — it’s survival.
When Russia’s $300 billion reserves were frozen in 2022, it proved fiat holdings are political hostages.
Gold needs no SWIFT system or central bank permission.
As Beijing and Moscow openly discuss a BRICS gold-backed trade currency, the dollar’s exorbitant privilege faces existential threat. The Fed’s delayed Basel III implementation until 2025 only underscores Washington’s fear of losing control.
The stampede has begun.
Retail investors still chasing crypto or tech stocks might recall that during the 2008 crisis, gold surged 166% while equities cratered.
With physical ETFs seeing record inflows and mining stocks undervalued relative to bullion, the revaluation trade of a generation is unfolding. Those dismissing gold’s rally as temporary should remember: every fiat currency in history has failed. The only question is what comes next — and Basel III’s answer is written in 24-karat letters.
Yes, buy all the Gold and Silver you want (physical)
but reap life changing wealth (with gold and silver miners)
Clearly the real Winner
Gold miners are poised for explosive growth as record bullion prices above $3,400/oz collide with a structural supply crunch and chronic sector undervaluation. The 15% gold surge in 2025 has transformed miners' economics - Newmont and Barrick now generate 27% and 21.5% year-to-date returns respectively, reversing 2024's $4.6 billion sector outflows. With Basel III's Tier 1 gold classification effective July 1 forcing banks to abandon paper gold derivatives, physical demand is funneling $555 million monthly into mining ETFs - a tide lifting all boats.
Major producers like Barrick now deploy $1 billion buybacks while maintaining sector-low $1,300/oz production costs9, creating 60%+ margins at current prices. Morningstar's revised $3,170/oz gold forecast suggests 40% upside for miners trading at 12x earnings versus bullion's 23x premium. As the Fed's impending rate cuts8 collide with Trump's tariff chaos, this leverage to monetary failure makes miners the ultimate convexity trade
Silver Miners ON SALE
Rotate out of Financialized Equities into Natural Resources
Silver miners stand at the brink of a generational opportunity as the gold-silver ratio’s extreme 100:1 distortion collapses toward its 50:1 historical mean.
This reversion would unleash a 250% surge in silver prices to $66/oz if gold holds at $3,300 — or $80/oz if gold reaches its projected $4,000 target by 2025’s end.
For miners, this seismic shift translates to 5x-8x margin expansion, with operational leverage magnifying every dollar of price gains.
Endorsed for ore grade, management, jurisdiction, volume of ounces, metallurgy:
Andean Precious Metals (TSX: APM, OTC: ANPMF)
Aya Gold & Silver (TSX: AYA, OTC: AYASF),
Kuya Silver (CSE: KUYA, OTC: KUYAF)
The Math of Margin Explosion
At current $33/oz silver, producers like Andean Precious Metals, Kuya Silver, Aya Gold and Silver operate on average $18/oz margins with $15 all-in costs. A ratio-driven jump to next TA point of support would yield an average of 10x returns given the leverage play
Supply Collision With Industrial Hunger
The sector faces a 250 million oz annual supply deficit as solar panel demand soaks 12% of global production — a figure set to triple by 2030. But solar panel use is 3rd in silver use behind military and aerospace.
Each new gigawatt of solar capacity devours 75 tons of silver,
Equity Valuation Arbitrage
Silver miners trade at 12x earnings versus gold miners’ 23x — a disparity that narrows violently during ratio mean-reversion.
The 2016 ratio compression saw SilverCrest Metals surge 417% in 12 months as silver outperformed gold 3:1.
Today’s setup is more explosive: the S&P/TSX Global Silver Index remains 47% below 2011 peaks despite silver prices being 60% higher
Catalyst Convergence
Basel III Tier 1 shift: Physical silver’s rising monetary role pressures paper markets, with LBMA vaults holding just 0.6 oz of physical per 100 oz in derivatives
Fed policy missteps: Projected rate cuts amid 4.9% inflation could spark real yields plunging to -3%, mirroring 1979’s silver moon launch
BRICS monetary reset: China’s covert 7,500-ton gold accumulation signals coming commodity-backed trade blocs, with silver as junior monetary metal
Historical Precedent Screams Buy
The last three ratio compressions (1980, 2003, 2011) delivered 287% average silver miner returns in 18 months.
With solar demand now anchoring industrial consumption and financialization trends accelerating, this cycle’s upside could dwarf previous rallies. As paper markets implode under Basel III’s physical squeeze, silver miners offer the ultimate inflation/geopolitical hedge — with rocket fuel attached.
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