Global PV installations may hit 660 GW in 2024, says Bernreuter Research
Here is a table showing the conversion of gigawatts (GW) to ounces of silver, starting with the given equivalence of 1 GW to 500,000 ounces of silver and extending it to 660 GW:
Each gigawatt of solar power generation requires approximately 500,000 ounces of silver.
Therefore, 660 gigawatts would require 330,000,000 ounces of silver
Global Silver mining production is around 530,000,000 ounces of silver
Solar therefore represents almost 2/3 of Total Mining Output.
Solar is the #3 user of Silver behind #1 military and #2 aerospace
Silver Demand In The Solar Sector Will Squeeze Silver Supply In The Future
Several years ago, analysts assumed that the amount of silver used in solar panels would decline over time with the development of new technologies. However, a Saxo Bank report in 2020 disputed this claim, saying, “Potential substitute metals cannot match silver in terms of energy output per solar panel.”
• By 2022, PERC technology was being replaced by Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact (TOPCon) cells. This advanced technology enhances the efficiency of solar cells by improving the way they handle electron flow. A TOPCon cell is cheaper to produce but uses more silver than a PERC solar panel. It contains about 13 milligrams of silver per watt.
• Now, heterojunction (HJT) technology is beginning to dominate the solar market. HJT cells are even more efficient than TOPCon technology and can capture energy on both sides of the panel. They are also more environmentally friendly. But they use even more silver – about 22 milligrams per watt. HJT cells only made up a small part of the market in 2023, but demand for these more efficient panels is expected to grow.
Bernreuter Research says low module prices will drive demand in the second half of this year. The researchers note the shipment targets of the world’s six largest solar module suppliers, who are aiming for an annual growth rate of 40% on average.
Global PV installations will range from 600 GW to 660 GW in 2024, according to Bernreuter Research.
Bernreuter said its forecast is supported by the shipment targets of the world's six largest solar module suppliers for 2024. On average, JinkoSolar, Longi, Trina, JA Solar, Tongwei, and Canadian Solar aim for a growth rate of 40%, which, based on global solar installations of 444 GW in 2023, would result in 622 GW of newly installed capacity in 2024.
“Even if leading players gain market share as tier-2 and tier-3 manufacturers struggle in the current low-price environment, it is likely that new PV installations will exceed 600 GW (DC) this year,” said Bernreuter.
Bernreuter's latest report, “Polysilicon Market Outlook 2027,” said low module prices will fuel demand in the second half of the year. “Once market participants conclude that the crash of the solar module price has reached its bottom, demand will accelerate,” explained Johannes Bernreuter, head of Bernreuter Research.
Global solar installations of 630 GW to 660 GW would exceed the report's high scenario of 620 GW. The report also noted that China, with a market share of more than 50%, will continue driving global PV installations forward.
“Our new analysis confirms the more aggressive forecast approach we have adopted in the report,” said Bernreuter.