For the Good of Silver: Chris Marcus and Arcadia Economics Should Call it Quits
So should the Silver Institute.
We want to acknowledge first that the YouTube program Arcadia Economics has served the Silver community over the past decade. We will continue to watch the show because we believe its important to keep an eye on all Silver reports.
While the quality of the shows is mostly above average, there are some glaring and fundamental flaws that point to a need for long-term editorial planning and audience expansion. These are crucial aspects that can significantly enhance the program's impact and reach.
They have broadcast approximately 2,500 videos but have yet to move the needle meaningfully.
They do an excellent job of 'rallying their base,' but Silver enthusiasts are very 'cultist,' and this need not be the area of promotional emphasis.
Preaching to the choir can be problematic because it does little to expand the funding necessary for future mining.
Moreover, there needs to be more evidence of channel growth (considering they've been on the air for over ten years) or recruiting new silver investors.
It's crucial to understand the challenges facing mining and to educate investors on the linkage between the energy, technology, and consumer landscape and the heightened urgency of investing in natural resources. These are topics that can greatly enrich the program's content and provide valuable insights to the audience.
Opinion: The Silver Academy chooses winners, whereas Marcus chooses money from anyone.
Glance at the stock performance of his sponsors compared to the miners endorsed by The Silver Academy.
Our business model is built on robust criteria, including ore grade, metallurgy/engineering, management, jurisdiction, balance sheet, and adherence to timeline phases and milestones, ensuring that we endorse only the most promising miners.
Following a meticulous review of over 50 pages of transcripts from Mexico's last election cycle, we conducted a comprehensive research process to share our findings, highlighting the significant 'five-alarm fire' jurisdiction risk in Mexico.
Mexico has officially announced its strategic plan to secure its energy future through silver, which could significantly impact the silver market.
Silver, as the top-rated metal for energy storage, presents a promising opportunity in the energy sector. This potential should inspire optimism and excitement among our stakeholders.
Silver is the top-rated metal for energy transfer, and it could be part of Mexico's strategy for securing its energy future.
Mexico is leaning toward Nationalizing its Silver resources, and just last week, the open pit ban moved further through its legislative bodies.
Even if this gets stalled in Congress, the risk remains. Understanding that inaction would move the risk from active to remission is crucial, but it doesn't eliminate it.
This reiteration should help you, our stakeholders, understand the urgency and importance of the situation.
Marcus is not the only one at fault for inaction. The embattled Silver Institute, lacking crucial information on warning signs, has also failed in its advocacy efforts.
Disclaimer: We have reached out to Marcus many times in the past but he doesn’t appear to be amenable to working with us on any promotions or broadcasts. We’re not offended by this but believe his bitterness is bad for Silver because it may undermine the “all boats rise together” mindset.
Challenges Facing Mining
Disconnection in Financial Markets
There is an urgent need to bridge the gap between mining operations and financial markets, as they are currently out of touch. The demand side reveals soaring purchase orders for products related to Solar energy, Satellites, Rockets, Torpedoes, Drones, Silver batteries, AI data centers, Medical Equipment, Electronics, 5G Technology, Robotics, Electric Trains, Fuel Cell Energy, Bullion, and Jewelry.
A promoter's job is to present the facts to the public to nudge popular sentiment.
A promoter's job is to educate the public about the necessity of investing in Silver to meet the aforementioned demand.
Comparison: The public can not hold contrary belief systems like "let's shut down oil and gas exploration" when the modern lifestyle includes a consumer basket full of cars, plastics, and all store inventory fits under the axiom "if you bought it, a truck brought it."
Decline in Gold Exploration Budgets
The mining industry faced a significant blow, with a loss of nearly $1.1 billion from gold exploration budgets last year, underscoring the gravity of the situation. The number of gold holes drilled also decreased by 36%.
Junior mining financings are at their lowest since 2019, with a 23% drop last year.
Value Creation in Mining
Barrick CEO Mark Bristow emphasizes that "value creation is through the drill bit."
However, even successful gold strikes take a long time to yield value.
Challenges in Mining Exploration
A recent Allianz Trade report highlights several challenges:
Extended exploration and authorization phases.
Complexities in securing financing and building permits.
Stricter regulations requiring detailed environmental and social impact assessments lead to increased red tape.
Increasing time needed to secure financing and building permits.
Mining companies are targeting deeper or lower-grade deposits due to the scarcity of accessible high-grade deposits.
This is why The Silver Academy endorses companies with high-grade ore versus working with companies that do not have access to high-grade ore
More sophisticated extraction techniques are needed, adding to exploration and development timelines.
Comparison with Other Metals
Gold miners face relatively better conditions compared to nickel and copper miners.
Timeline from Discovery to Production
The time from discovery to flowing ounces of gold and Silver takes almost 16 years.
Silver price up 28% over past 6 months (about the same percentage over past year)
First Majestic stock down while promoted by Chris Marcus
Reyna Silver Corp way down while promoted by Chris Marcus
Blackrock Silver Corp way down while promoted by Chris Marcus
Silver Viper Mineral Minerals Corp pathetic performance while promoted by Chris Marcus
Silver Academy Endorses 5 Miners:
In stark contrast we endorse these 5 miners based on the aforementioned criteria
Other Silver News
China Vault Depletion Accelerating
Down 75 tonnes in 4 days
and 20.5 tonnes yesterday .
Another run to start in silver soon.
Next target for silver is $35 by September.
More Transcripts from Mexican Activists Calling for Energy Independence. Silver Resources Belong to People of Mexico
Let’s begin with some historical context of why Energy self sufficiency is the best practice for building the wealth of nations.
Add in another factor in silver’s favor: the massive slump in Chinese steel production.
China is the world’s top steel producer. Or, was, until very recently. Much of that steel went into constructing residential apartments that Chinese young people were supposed to purchase to live in and families were supposed to invest in to protect and grow their nest eggs. (The Chinese economy offers its people very few investment options except real estate.) Vast quantities of steel also went into constructing commercial buildings that surrounded the apartments to form the cities that future Chinese people were supposed to inhabit. The rest mostly got exported and “dumped” at cheap prices into other countries’ economies.
Thanks, however, to the slowdown of the global economy coupled with internal factors putting the brakes on the Chinese economy, their property sector is collapsing. No demand for property = no demand for steel. Throw in what appears to be an irreversible structural crash in population looming (thanks to the infamous “one child” policy imposed in the 1970’s), and it doesn’t take a Ph.D. in physics to see that total global steel demand is going to strongly decrease for decades ahead. In fact, it may never recover to recent peak levels.
So how does this affect silver? Through zinc! Zinc is used for galvanizing steel. Galvanizing protects steel from corrosion and rust. Less steel production = less galvanizing = less need for zinc = less zinc mining = less silver mined, since a significant proportion of silver is a by-product of zinc mining. Therefore, no matter what else happens in the silver mining space, even if silver mining suddenly were to start operating under the most favorable conditions, the total amount of silver being pulled out of the ground will be less than what WOULD be pulled out of the ground if the zinc mines were forging ahead at current levels of production.
Perhaps there are other uses for zinc that are, or will be, ramping up as the need for galvanizing winds down, to soak up what will become the excess zinc, but I’m personally not aware of any. My perception is that zinc mining will necessarily slow down and with it will silver production from zinc mines. Less silver mined will mean less silver refined and made available for delivery from the trading vaults. What happens when traders get nervous and start standing for delivery, as more are now starting to do?
I see no reason why all this will increase the sense of urgency, though, for increasing silver production in other ways in the minds of mostly clueless regulators. Nor will it reduce the very legitimate opposition to silver mining (especially horrific open pit mining) by environmentalists. (I’ll leave discussion of the ironic conundrum of “green” energy being produced by noisy, disruptive, filthy, toxic open pit mines for another day.) There will eventually be a greater investment in recycling, but that can’t happen until AFTER shortages push silver prices up.
The point here is that as the global demand for steel slows down, the global demand for zinc will likely slow down with it, and the production of silver will meaningfully slow down with the drop in zinc mining. Straight into the teeth of an already massive structural silver deficit that’s increasing by the day in the face of rapidly increasing silver demand.
Looks like part of a setup for a perfect storm for silver prices, and one that may never end because the key components of price support (population decline coupled with global economic downturns and current above-ground deficits in the face of soaring demand) are long-term and structural in nature. So, for the foreseeable future, the pressure on silver prices will only intensify while supplies will only decline, IMO. So, best to get on that train now before it turns into a rocket and blasts off? I think so!