Follow the Gold, Oil and Silver.
Heading into 2025, Keep an eye on Gold, Oil, Silver and Graphic Processing Units Necessary for AI
Are these signs we have entered a Recession or even a Depression?
End of Petrodollar means US Dollar is going to crash (it was anchored by OPEC oil)
What about the Looming Commercial Real Estate Crash?
About $1.7 trillion, or nearly 30% of outstanding commercial real estate debt, is expected to mature from 2024 to 2026.
Most of this debt is going to need to reprice now at a much higher adjusted rate.
At a time when office values have fallen about 34% from the 2021 peak.
In many cases properties have sold for as low as $9 per SF like the FedEx property near Cleveland
The percentage decline from 145 million to 25 million is a whopping 82.76%. Are these are the Signs We’ve Entered The Great Recession Depression of 2024?
Unrealized losses
Unrealized losses refer to the decrease in the market value of securities or assets held by banks compared to their original purchase price. These losses are considered "unrealized" because the banks have not yet sold the assets, and the losses are only on paper.
The latest bad news regarding unrealized losses in the US banking system is as follows:
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), unrealized losses on securities held by US banks soared to $517 billion in the first quarter of 2024, an increase of $39 billion from the previous quarter.
The surge in unrealized losses was primarily driven by higher unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, resulting from rising mortgage rates during the first quarter.
This marks the ninth consecutive quarter of unusually high unrealized losses since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in early 2022.
The FDIC also reported that the number of banks on its "Problem Bank List" (those at risk of insolvency) increased from 52 in Q4 2023 to 63 in Q1 2024, representing 1.4% of all banks.
The FDIC warned that persistent inflation, volatile market rates, and geopolitical concerns could lead to credit quality, earnings, and liquidity challenges for the industry.
The unrealized losses stem from the fact that when interest rates rise, the market value of fixed-income securities like bonds and mortgage-backed securities decreases.
Although banks can hold these securities until maturity and receive the full face value, the unrealized losses can become a liability if the banks need to sell the assets before maturity to raise cash
The Good News is you can protect yourself with Gold and Silver and Oil
A theory (proposal) by Zoltan Pozsar, a strategist at Credit Suisse, suggests that if Russia accepts payment in gold for its oil exports, it could lead to a significant increase in the price of gold. Specifically, if Russia demands one gram of gold for each barrel of oil sold at the G7's price cap of $60 per barrel, it would effectively double the price of gold from around $1,800 to $3,600 per ounce.[1][2]
This is because, at current market prices, one gram of gold is roughly equivalent to $60, so Russia would be demanding twice the value in gold compared to the capped dollar price. Such a move could increase the value of Russia's gold reserves and production, while also potentially causing liquidity issues for banks involved in gold futures markets that have not accounted for the possibility of commodities being traded for gold.[1]
Glazyev's Advocacy for a Gold-Backed BRICS ++ Gold for Oil Currency
Glazyev has been a strong advocate for Russia returning to a gold-backed ruble, a system he refers to as "Golden Ruble 3.0."He believes that by accepting payment in gold for its oil exports, Russia could effectively double the price of gold from around $1,800 to $3,600 per ounce, as one gram of gold is roughly equivalent to the G7's price cap of $60 per barrel of oil.
This move, according to Glazyev, would increase the value of Russia's gold reserves and production, while also potentially causing liquidity issues for banks involved in gold futures markets that have not accounted for the possibility of commodities being traded for gold. He argues that a return to the gold standard would substantially reduce borrowing costs for Russia.
Overall, Glazyev's ideas reflect a broader Russian strategy to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar and Western financial systems, and to explore alternative arrangements that could strengthen Russia's economic sovereignty and resilience in the face of ongoing sanctions and geopolitical tension
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Citations:
https://bmg-group.com/if-russia-accepts-gold-for-oil-gold-price-doubles-to-3600-says-credit-suisse/
https://www.exploring-economics.org/en/discover/zoltan-pozsar-on-russia-gold-and-a-turning-poin/
https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/assets/corporate/docs/about-us/research/publications/csri-future-of-the-monetary-system.pdf
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-02/zoltan-pozsar-on-russia-gold-and-a-turning-point-for-the-u-s-dollar
https://www.wsj.com/articles/zoltan-pozsars-writing-is-dense-esoteric-and-a-hit-now-hes-left-credit-suisse-f2ec2483
https://janataweekly.org/russias-sergey-glazyev-introduces-the-new-global-financial-system/
https://twitter.com/GoldSilverHQ/status/1772601352721518904
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/russia-s-intentions-are-clarifying
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Glazyev