Beyond the Silver Shortage: Confronting the Dual Crisis of Energy and Precious Metals
I live in the Pittsburgh PA area. Pittsburgh has adjusted to the hallowed out steel industry by pivoting to higher education, healthcare, robotics and AI but this is mostly in the city proper. Once you leave the metropolitan area the neighborhoods and infrastructure take a darker turn.
The once-thriving industrial core of western Pennsylvania and the Ohio Valley now stands as a stark testament to the far-reaching impacts of labor arbitrage and outsourcing.
US Jobs outsourced to India, SE Asia, Mexico, China, etc
Pittsburgh and its surrounding areas, including the lower Monongahela Valley and the backroads to Wheeling, West Virginia & Eastern Ohio bear the scars of a vanished era.
Where fiery steel furnaces once lit up the night sky, now stand silent, rusting monuments to a bygone industrial age.
These hollowed-out communities, with their abandoned factories and boarded-up storefronts, have become real-life sets for TV shows like "American Rust," which depict the social devastation left in the wake of economic upheaval.
The region's struggle is further immortalized in works like "Dopesick," starring Michael Keaton, which shines a light on the opioid crisis that has ravaged former coal mining communities.
These stories paint a vivid picture of the human cost when industries relocate, leaving behind ghost towns and shattered lives.
When I drive through these once-bustling areas, the empty streets, graffiti “art” , boarded up storefronts and crumbling infrastructure serve as a sobering reminder of how global economic forces can reshape entire regions, leaving communities to grapple with the aftermath of labor arbitrage and outsourcing
The Collapse of Rustbelt did increase living standards elsewhere.
India experiencing a booming middle class
Once industrialists and corporate executives discovered that it was cheaper to manufacture outside of USA it created boom cycles in countries like India.
Sir James Goldsmith, a prominent businessman and politician, warned about the negative consequences of unchecked globalization and outsourcing. He predicted that these practices would lead to significant job losses and economic instability in developed nations.
Goldsmith argued that corporate executives and industrialists would increasingly engage in labor arbitrage, seeking to maximize profits by shifting production to countries with lower wages. This process of offshoring jobs allowed companies to dramatically reduce labor costs while also benefiting from cheaper raw materials and transportation expenses in developing nations.
The impact of this trend was particularly devastating for traditional manufacturing hubs in the United States. Steel production in Pennsylvania and Ohio saw massive declines as companies moved operations overseas. Akron, once known as the "Rubber Capital of the World," experienced a similar fate as tire manufacturers relocated to countries with lower production costs. Detroit's automotive industry, the backbone of the city's economy, suffered greatly as car manufacturers outsourced assembly lines to countries like Mexico and China.
The coal industry in the Appalachian Mountains also faced significant challenges. As demand for coal decreased due to both environmental concerns and competition from cheaper foreign sources, many mines closed, leaving entire communities economically devastated.
Goldsmith's predictions largely came true, as these industries experienced substantial job losses and economic decline. The pursuit of profit through globalization and outsourcing reshaped the economic landscape of many American regions, leaving behind struggling communities and a diminished manufacturing base.
How much more energy will India consume?
DOUBLE IT
India's energy landscape is poised for a significant transformation over the next decade, driven by a projected increase in air conditioning usage from the current 5% to a substantial 50%. This tenfold increase in air conditioning adoption could potentially double India's total energy consumption, assuming all other factors remain constant. As the third-largest energy-consuming country and a net importer of energy, India faces considerable challenges in meeting this surge in demand.
To address this growing energy need sustainably, India would need to dramatically expand its renewable energy capacity. The country has already committed to commissioning 500 gigawatts of renewable energy by from 2025 to 2030, but this target now needs to be revised upward to accommodate the increased demand from air conditioning.
Solar power is likely to play a crucial role in this expansion, with each gigawatt of solar capacity requiring approximately 700,000 ounces of silver due to its superior conductive and reflective properties.
If half of the new energy demand were to be met by solar power, India would need to secure a substantial amount of silver for solar panel production, potentially creating new market dynamics for the precious metal. This scenario underscores the immense investment opportunities in India's renewable energy sector, as highlighted by Morgan Stanley's research.
The projected increase in energy demand would necessitate significant investments in energy infrastructure, including generation, transmission, and distribution systems. Additionally, India would need to implement robust energy efficiency measures to mitigate the impact of increased air conditioning usage.
This predictive model illustrates the complex interplay between economic growth, quality of life improvements, and energy demand in a rapidly developing country like India. It also highlights the critical importance of sustainable energy solutions in meeting the country's future needs. As India navigates this energy transition, it will likely present both challenges and opportunities for policymakers, investors, and the global energy market.
New Energy required and India would still be far behind US AC home use by 40%
The jump in our report last week. 4,554 tons is 7 times greater than 560 tons.
But lets convert to ounces since the price of silver is listed in ounces and all sales of silver are denominated in ounces.
Why these are converted to tons by other reports seems to be illogical.
Reuters headline below is wrong
Should be 7 times greater and this is just for reporting on the first half of 2024.
Does this mean it will be 14 times greater since the reporting is for only half a year?
Logic says yes.
Reuters wrote double
We just posted the numbers knowing our readership loves math - LOL
end of section
Next week we will begin connecting more dots circling back to SilverWars.org
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/electronics/indias-demand-for-electricity-for-acs-to-exceed-total-power-consumption-of-africa-iea/articleshow/104669858.cms
https://www.business-standard.com/world-news/india-s-power-demand-for-acs-to-exceed-total-consumption-of-africa-iea-123102400308_1.html
https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/air-conditioning-in-india-can-raise-emissions-by-120-mn-tonnes-by-2050-123062200649_1.html
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/05/india-heat-cooling-challenge-temperature-air-conditioning/
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/ac-use-rising-sharply-in-india-will-surpass-all-other-home-appliances-by-2050-report-101698169969128.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/environment/rising-ac-sales-and-surging-demand-for-cooling-escalates-indias-environmental-challenges-101717963871627.html
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/durables/unprecedented-ac-demand-forces-makers-to-airlift-components-from-abroad/articleshow/111112962.cms
https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/india-renewable-energy-investing-opportunities
https://www.worksoft.com/corporate-blog/labor-arbitrage-goes-way-dinosaur
https://www.outsourceaccelerator.com/articles/labor-arbitrage/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_labor_arbitrage
https://www.baldurbjarnason.com/2024/react-electron-llms-labour-arbitrage/
https://joinhorizons.com/global-labor-arbitrage/
https://www.horsesforsources.com/forget-labor-arbitrage_111823/
https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/9780822387879-009/html?lang=en
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/future-bleak-brief-history-outsourcing-how-we-got-here-barjatya
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